Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Buy call in IDEA


IDEA (58)

Buy for a 1st target of 62 and 2nd target of 70 with a stop loss of 56 (for traders). In the long term the stock can target 110.

Telecom stocks have corrected ever since the tariff war started among them after TRAI asked everyone to cut down on rates.

India is a growing economy and today having a mobile phone in a city is a priority not luxury not just for the Classes but also for the Masses. The steep fall in share price in the last quarter of 2009 has discounted the tariff reduction effect on bottom line of telecom companies.

There is still tremendous opportunity for growth in volumes among them as rural markets are yet to be tapped to there potential. Also they do not generate all there revenue from tariff calls. A high percentage of telecom revenue comes from add on facilities like GPRS, Caller Tunes, Ring Tones, GPS, Tie-up with ebay & NGPay and the forthcoming 3G Technology.

Recently, AIRCEL sold there towers to SPICE at a value of Rs 8000 crs which was approx Rs 45 Lakhs per tower. Now the government has considered allowing sharing of towers and other connected infrastructure facilities among telecoms.

It appears that most of the worst is over for telecom stocks like IDEA and they could be accumulated for investment.

Regards


VARIOUS (III) Research Reports

CAIRN -- Anand Rathi
At crude prices based on this scenario (on the forward curve), Cairn India would be valued at about Rs320 a share. A higher assumed long-term Brent price would have a significant impact on valuations, as the company is highly geared to oil prices.

Concor's future growth is likely to be driven by (1) setting up of logistics park (2) expansion of wagon capacity, and (3) replaced of existing material handling equipment with latest technology.

As mentioned by us earlier HH has lost market share to competition and we expect this trend to continue in FY11. We expect HH to counter increasing product based competition by leveraging its tax haven operations.

ITC trades at 21.1x and 18.8x our FY11E and FY12E EPS of Rs12.1 and Rs13.6 respectively – lower than 5-year P/E median of 21.4x. We believe that with cigarettes business continuing its strong trajectory and other businesses beginning to show traction, there is a potential for upside (fair value at Rs289 at median P/E of 21.4x FY12E, implying an upside of ~13%). We upgrade our recommendation to Outperform.

Sun TV continues to be one of our top pick in the media space and we expect robust revenue
growth led by higher subscription revenue from DTH and strong regional advertising growth.

We believe AIA will benefit from recovery in the global commodity cycle and strong capacity addition in the Indian cement sector. The company has made headway into different segments like platinum, copper and gold besides iron ore in mining.







Monday, February 8, 2010

Buy call in DEEPAK FERTILIZER



DEEPAK FERTILIZER (106.45)

Buy for a 1st target of 113 and 2nd target of 125 with a stop loss of 102 (for traders). In the long term the stock can do 150.
  • Deepak Fertilizer is the largest manufacturer of Technical Prilled Ammonium Nitrate (used in Mining and Construction Industries) in India.
  • Asia's largest NITRIC ACID facility. Its TALOJA plant will add to its OPM% in FY11.
  • It is the only manufacturer in India for substitutes of ISOPROPYL ALCOHOL.
  • Well connected to KG BASIN for gas.
  • The cost of naptha from Middle East @ $14 has been substituted with Reliance Gas @ $4.2 / mbtu
  • Out of a total revenue of RS 139 Crs its Industrial Revenue is Rs 81 Crs so even it is not highly dependent on monsoon for Agricultural Revenue currently standing at Rs 58 Crs.
  • Additonal Income from its ISHANYA Mall
  • EPS for FY10E 16.80 FY11E 19.80
I have been bullish on fertilizer sector from quite sometime now http://bluechips4u.blogspot.com/2010/01/technical-call-in-nagarjuna-fertilizer.html inspite of the fall in Nifty from 5320 to 4675, nagarjuna fertilizer has be steady.

Regards

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

NEWS @ 03-02-2010

'GDP data to guide stimulus withdrawal'
The government may delay rolling back the stimulus measures if it relies on the economic growth numbers for the current fiscal, to provide it with the true picture of demand in the system, chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Wednesday.

In its report the panel suggested to free petrol prices at refinery and at retail level. PSU oil companies at present lose Rs 3/litre of petrol. It also recommended retail diesel prices be market driven.

The net earnings of the private sector banks grew by 6.4% over the same period of the previous year, while earnings of their public sector peers were up by 1.3%.

SAIL had last month ruled out any reduction in domestic steel prices in the near-term citing improvement in the demand scenario and rising input costs.

Despite a rise in subscriber base, the country’s leading wireless service providers, Bharti Airtel (Bharti) and Reliance Communications (RCom), reported a fall in growth in consolidated revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins for the December quarter.

The government is likely to approve an additional equity infusion of Rs 800 crore (Rs 8 billion) into the cash-strapped Air India next week, but wants the airline to take 'extraordinary' measures for financial turnaround.

Jet’s total debt as of December 2009 stands at Rs 14,200 crore and the company’s debt-equity ratio is about 7:1”. The company is believed to have borrowed at an interest rate of around 9 %.

The follow-on public offer of state-run power major NTPC was subscribed 61 per cent in the first two hours of its opening on Wednesday.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

NEWS @ 02-02-2010

That's the message prudent investors might take away from the news Monday that President Obama is proposing to plunge us even further into debt this year than he did last year, amid the worst the financial crisis in generations.

And not just emotionally: while the freeze won’t be a big deal, it will depress demand during a period in which, according to the administration’s own projections, unemployment will stay very high.

Retire? You can fuggetaboutit if the new Global Debt Time Bomb is detonated by any one of 20 made-in-America trigger mechanisms.

"We are borrowing from future generations. Instead of transferring our wealth to them, we are transferring their wealth to us."

The next contagion is beginning to spread around the globe. It is unexpected on Wall Street, misunderstood in Washington — and very dangerous. It could sabotage the plans of the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and many of their counterparts overseas.

Defaults by small and medium-sized U.S. businesses on loans, leases and credit lines to finance capital equipment investment fell for the first time in 2 years in December, adding to signs of a nascent economic recovery, PayNet reported.

India doesn't appear to be facing the same degree of potential dangers and downside risks as China, which means policymakers in New Delhi might have a much easier task in maintaining the economy's momentum than their Chinese counterparts.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957281,00.html?xid=rss-business&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Fbusiness+%28TIME%3A+Top+Business+Stories%29&utm_content=LocalHost#ixzz0eNo1WyoD

“Fitch regards the deterioration in India’s public finances since 2008 as partly structural, putting negative pressure on the local currency rating that will require substantive fiscal reform to redress".

Reliance has also filed for seeking a fresh in-principal approval for its Gurgaon SEZ, after the Centre refused to extend the same in December last year, as SEZ rules don’t permit giving third extensions. The approval is yet to come from the Centre.

Those shortages strongly indicate a major market change, as China changes from a coal exporter to an importer, despite it having the world’s third largest coal reserves.

Suzlon has an existing orderbook of about $5 billion held jointly with another unit REpower Systems. Suzlon and REpower have a combined capacity to produce turbines to generate 5,450 megawatts of electricity.

Siemens to invest Rs 1,600 cr in India in 3 yrs
Realising great business opportunity in the energy sector in the country, the company also plans to have presence in solar power, Bruck said, without giving further details.

A preferential allotment of 5 percent of GSPC at about 810 rupees a share has been made to existing shareholders, including government-run State Bank of India, the country's No. 1 lender, and state-run IDBI Bank, Pandian said.

India’s 3G subscriber base is forecasted to reach 50 million by 2012. Besides fostering sizable investment in the telecom sector for the nationwide 3G deployments, the upcoming spectrum auction will further boost wireless demand in the country, driven by the wider access to advanced data applications enabled by the 3G technology.

With the next wave of subscriber addition growth coming from the rural market most operators are currently trying to scale up in semi-rural and rural markets.

A source close to the deal said many potential buyers were scratching their heads at Reliance Comm’s asking price, said to be around $3 billion, for assets it collectively purchased over the last seven years for less than $600 million combined.

This comes in the wake of BSNL's deteriorating market share in the last various quarters and has come down to fourth place after Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and RCom. Even revenues have taken a hit last year.

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